About those batteries. 2

[GregLocock]

Many first world countries claiming they will meet 0% CO2 via renewables are relying on replacing fossil fueled cars with EVs, and also using lithium batteries to provide short term storage for the grid.

S&P Global says that even if every lithium project around the world was to come online by 2030 there is still going to be a 220,000t gap minimum in demand in 2030.

In fact, they said it could be as a high as a 2 million tonne gap.

For the cobalt market, a long-term deficit will emerge from 2024.

There are not enough minerals, like lithium, cobalt and nickel, in the currently reported global reserves to build even one generation of batteries for all EVs and stationary power storage.

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/...es-to-replace-the-batteries-were-running-now/

https://www.gtk.fi/en/time-to-wake-up/

I suspect that battery recycling will become a must have tech, which means there will be plenty of taxpayer money floating around to establish it.


Cheers

Greg Locock


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[JoshPlumSE]

I suspect that battery recycling will become a must have tech, which means there will be plenty of taxpayer money floating around to establish it.

Yes, I suspect this will be a true necessity.

But, remember that there will likely be lots of innovation in this sector over the next few decades. Not necessarily even with the batteries themselves, but with how they're used. How they're recycled, how they're produced. We've had 100+ years of refining the internal combusting engines and all the car parts built around it. There has to be plenty of room for innovation in the electric car sector.

I, for one, prefer the idea of a hybrid car for the time being. Just way more efficient than pure gas cars.

We could see all kinds of variations on the "hybrid" concept. Hybrid Gas / Electric. Hybrid Fuel Cell / Electric. Hybrid biofuel / electric.

Heck we could even see hybrid electric / electric where you use multiple different TYPES of batteries. Like cheap / disposable / easily recyclable batters for most around the town use where these batteries have to get changed out every few years. Then rely on the expensive / premium batteries only for long range trips.

We could also have reverse hybrid systems that rely on the electric most of the time, but switch to a smaller / less powerful gas engine when it needs to prevent the battery from discharging past it's most efficient zone (which decreases the life of the battery).

 

[rb1957]

greg, greg, greg ... always the negative waves ...

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[TugboatEng]

The internal combustion is so efficient, it is only rivaled by large scale combined cycle. There is not really a lot left to gain there.

Instead, we should be shifting gears to self-driving. Traffic wastes fuel and human drivers cause traffic. Existing carpool lanes could be repurposed as certified self-driving lanes. A standardized communications protocol should be established so that other self-driving cars can coordinate. Systems should be able to retrofit on to existing vehicles.

Ideas like above need to be tailored around existing infrastructure. This is how to reduce CO2 emissions.

 

[GregLocock]

More negativity. A lab set up by our national scientific research organisation tests domestic battery systems. Oh dear. This is directly relevant to me as our off grid house can't afford to have batteries that don't work - we're on AGM lead acids at the moment.

https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/battery-testing-final-report/

Sorry you'll have to put with his sense of humo(u)r.

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[TugboatEng]

My parents asked them to help select a battery for their house to get through our planned power shutoffs in the summer. I was onboard but as I started looking at off the shelf systems, I realized that they all lie about their specs. I told them I could not guarantee the batteries would do what they want/need and had to talk them into buying a Honda generator. They already have a generator but I can't guarantee it will do what they need. It's those pesky "peak" ratings.

 

[IRstuff]

They already have a generator but I can't guarantee it will do what they need. It's those pesky "peak" ratings.

There's one other pesky thing, reliability physics continues to operate even when the equipment doesn't, although at a much lower rate. So, if your generator has a mean time to failure (MTBF) of, say, 3 years with continuous operation, it'll have possibly a 30-year MTBF while dormant, and there would only be about 90% probability of the equipment running after 3 yr of dormancy.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg

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[TugboatEng]

That's the worst part about gas generators, even dormant they're still failing. 1-2 years of sitting and it's probably not going to start without some carburetor repair. Propane solves this but there aren't good propane options in small, top tier gen sets.

 

[enginesrus]

Tugboat, what is needed is real licensing of drivers. Just like a pilots license you have to learn how to fly the plane.
Driving is a skill and not many have it. Traffic, if you had 300 race car drivers in a hypothetical rush hour scenario they could all be on each others bumper at 80 miles per hour with no traffic jams. And
actually exit an off ramp by not slowing down for it a mile away, and enter from an on ramp at highway speed not at 25 mph. Self driving vehicles will be the most hazardous type of travel ever.

 

[Tmoose]

"Self driving vehicles will be the most hazardous type of travel ever."

I can believe that.

Well maybe riding T-rexes or velociraptors was probably worse.

 

[EdStainless]

I have always wondered if you have cars adaptive cruise control talk to each other?
In many cases slowing traffic slightly and controlling the spacing/accel/decell could greatly increase average speed and reduce fuel use.
I also like the idea of a hybrid. I want the gas engine tuned for specific loads, say one of then being 75mph.
And then when there is headwind or uphill sections the electric adds in rather than move to less efficient operating points.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
P.E. Metallurgy, consulting work welcomed

 

[BrianPetersen]

Vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communication was being discussed some years ago, but as far as I can tell, nothing (or not much) ever came of it.

Vehicle-to-deer, or vehicle-to-moose, or vehicle-to-errant-pedestrian, is never going to work.

EdStainless, the Chevrolet Volt powertrain did more-or-less what you describe ... but they weren't strong sellers. I still think they should have put that powertrain in an Equinox instead ... same underlying platform, so they could have, they just didn't.

 

[rb1957]

I thought the Volt had a "range extender" gas engine ... an engine powering a generator to recharge the battery. The advantage of this is the engine is optimised for it's design point and the load is much more consistent, and so more efficient.

I thought Ed's idea was primarily a gas powered car, using electric power to smooth out the peaks.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[GregLocock]

vehicle-to-infrastructure communication is probably the only way we'll get to L4+++, that is you instrument all your roadways.

vehicle-to-errant-pedestrian - since we've all taken to walking around with our own little radio stations the car can at least locate most pedestrians. I vaguely remember a Chinese or Japanese company pursuing that.


Cheers

Greg Locock


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[rb1957]

I guess that's also a way to cull the population of (those old) people not plugged into the 24/7 electronic world.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[hokie66]

We old people are not plugged in, so we look both ways before crossing. It's the young ones with ear phones who get hit.

 

[rb1957]

how do you dodge a car programed to hit ? (well, designed not to evade)

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

 

[TugboatEng]

The same way you would a train.

 

[MJCronin]

A

http://wwwwww

..... C'mon GUYS !!!! ......... We can trust the machine !!!! .... It will never turn on us !!!

MJCronin
Sr. Process Engineer

 

[JoshPlumSE]

Traffic wastes fuel and human drivers cause traffic.

Yup. One thing that's really interesting is how much of the technology developed for EV's is trickling down to the rest of cars. My Dad's car is a 2015 Acura. It's not an EV, not even a hybrid. But, it's got a "gas saver" mode where the engine automatically turns off when you're idling at light or in traffic. Honestly, I think this is really cool and it's surprising how much better the gas mileage is when you use this mode.

Then, obviously, we've got the capturing of kinetic energy through breaking systems that was developed for EV's but is now used in most (all?) hybrid vehicles. Cars are getting lighter with more advanced materials. It's all very cool from an engineering perspective. And, all of this has been advanced in the last 20 or 30 years.